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08-16-11, 07:34 AM #1
What do you think of predictive policing?
Could this work for your area?
The arrests were routine. Two women were taken into custody after they were discovered peering into cars in a downtown parking garage in Santa Cruz, Calif. One woman was found to have outstanding warrants; the other was carrying illegal drugs.
But the presence of the police officers in the garage that Friday afternoon in July was anything but ordinary: They were directed to the parking structure by a computer program that had predicted that car burglaries were especially likely there that day.
The program is part of an unusual experiment by the Santa Cruz Police Department in predictive policing — deploying officers in places where crimes are likely to occur in the future.
In July, Santa Cruz began testing the prediction method for property crimes like car and home burglaries and car thefts. So far, said Zach Friend, the police department’s crime analyst, the program has helped officers pre-empt several crimes and has led to five arrests.
The notion of predictive policing is attracting increasing attention from law enforcement agencies around the country as departments struggle to fight crime at a time when budgets are being slashed.
“We’re facing a situation where we have 30 percent more calls for service but 20 percent less staff than in the year 2000, and that is going to continue to be our reality,” Mr. Friend said. “So we have to deploy our resources in a more effective way, and we thought this model would help.”
08-16-11, 08:36 AM #2
I have not seen anyone use it for police work, but Fire and EMS have been using this for at least 10 years now and they all say it works well for them. I am just not sure how well it would work at predicting police calls.
08-18-11, 11:28 AM #3
This sounds like it will be great if it actually works.
08-18-11, 12:17 PM #4SI VIS PACEM PARA BELLUM-Ex-Sheriff Martin Howe to Will Kane in "High Noon"
"It's a great life. You risk your skin catching killers and the juries turn them loose so they can come back and shoot at you again. If your honest , your poor your whole life. And , In the end , you wind up dying all alone on some dirty street. For what? For nothing. For a tin star."
Far from being a handicap to command, compassion is the measure of it. For unless one values the lives of his soldiers and is tormented by their ordeals , he is unfit to command.
-General Omar Bradley, United States Army
08-18-11, 12:58 PM #5
My last department had a civilian "crime analyst" on staff. They had all kinds of training and degrees. The computer program was pretty complicated. Crime trends were plugged in (like a burglary series) and the program would spit out a map of the likely area next to be hit and the time/day of the week likely to be hit. It was good for helping us target assets into specific times and places. It also helped justify special ops with directed enforcement. It was never specific enough to say "Burger King at 3623 Melrose Ave will be robbed on Friday at 2314 hours." It was just a generalized recommendation for allocating assets. "In this general area the next commercial burglary is likely to occur on Thursday or Sunday morning between 0200-0500."
In a smaller area, a good cop could probably instinctively figure it out on their own. But in a busy city, constantly having tons of crime, it helped filter out the noise.
Nothing miraculous, nothing earth shattering, but helpful.Pleasing nobody, one person at a time.
That which does not kill me, better start fucking running.
If I lived every day like it was my last, the body count would be staggering.
I intend to go in harm's way. -John Paul Jones
Hunt the wolf, and bring light to the dark places that others fear to go. LT COL Dave Grossman
08-18-11, 06:07 PM #6
Every police officer uses this, wether they know it or not.
You work an area you get to know where the bad guys do their work, you then put yourself in that area.
There aint nothing new in policing.
However the bosses love these crime pattern analysis(the emphasis being on anal!) type thingy's. they can spend all day looking at graphs and charts and pretty pictures, then they can send down a whole raft of paerwork telling us what we already knew!the sole advantage of power is that you can do more good.
( Baltasar Gracian )
08-18-11, 07:12 PM #7
During my years as a precinct commander (1990 to 1997) we had a team at each one with an experienced officer, a civilian analyst, several interns or volunteers and a computer. Thier job was to determine the who, what, where and when of crime. They published weekly bulletins for our own folks as well as the surrounding departments. The predictions were not provided by the computer, but rather, the officer and his staff did that based on computer data.
It worked pretty well and in particular, it provided up to the minute data on who was capering where and who needed to be arrested.
It wasn't exactly Predictive Policing, but it was pretty close and did result in a lot of good police work and good arrests.
Car 4I would like my country back. I used to believe that one man could never destroy this country. Not so sure anymore!
08-18-11, 09:29 PM #8the program has helped officers pre-empt several crimes and has led to five arrests.
I don't really know the cost, but I bet it was a bunch. And 5 people is insignificant to say the least.
I'm not a big fan of spending money on software for such things in these hard economic times. I agree with motorwaycop - this is something cops already do when alllowed to apply thier trade - before admin makes them an empty uniform by worrying over bad guys complaining, pay cuts, layoffs etc. I hope people don't start thinking about buying this sort of thing unless it actually produces results that are quantifiable and is shown to be worth whatever prices software companies want for it (again, guessing it won't be cheap).Idiot
08-18-11, 09:58 PM #9
Here's my prediction: Friday and Saturday nights get rough in the 'hood.\\` ` ` ` < ` )___/\
`` ` ` ` (3--(____)
"...but to forget your duck, of course, means you're really screwed." - Gary Larson
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