Dean incoming?

**countybear** · 08-18-07, 02:01 PM

With maximum sustained wind strength now reaching 150 m.p.h., (the upper end of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), Hurricane Dean threatens to move into the Gulf of Mexico from the Carribean. Although fluctuations in storm intensity are expected, storms do historically strengthen from the warm waters of the Gulf, making the potential of an already well-organized and powerful hurricane possibly even becoming more powerful.

Track forecasts by the National Hurricane Center have placed the storm following a West-Northwesterly course, beelining across the South coast of Cuba then grazing the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf.

Gulf coast areas should begin closely watching the progress and track of Dean, according to the National Weather Service.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml

Satellite imagery from NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

**Jenna** · 08-18-07, 02:07 PM

Hope this one doesn't turn out as bad as it's looking. Don't know what LEF will do if the Swamp Mafia loses its internet connection!

**BigDawg** · 08-18-07, 02:41 PM

We have battened down the hatches here in Haiti waiting to see what happenes. It should start to get real nasty here in the next hour. Wish me luck!!!!

**SaraJ** · 08-18-07, 02:54 PM

Oh boy. Headed right for us. Here we go again.

**k-9max** · 08-18-07, 02:57 PM

I think its another terrorist act again.

ok, thats not right, sorry,

yeah, i would be thinking about how quick i could get my ass out of florida, or gulf coast, if it travels that way.

good luck people, thoughts and prayers are with you!

**lewisipso** · 08-18-07, 02:58 PM

Everybody in the line of fire, hang on.

**Pudge** · 08-18-07, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by BigDawg

We have battened down the hatches here in Haiti waiting to see what happenes. It should start to get real nasty here in the next hour. Wish me luck!!!!

Good luck bro! Be safe!

**kjlaw** · 08-18-07, 04:11 PM

BigDawg and SaraJ be safe and hang on.

**4everlate** · 08-18-07, 04:34 PM

One of you guys need to get out there in a boat and point a radar at him.

Everyone slows down when they see a cop.

**Jenna** · 08-18-07, 04:37 PM

Let's hope that, like his namesake, this Dean fails to live up to expectations.

**Tuff** · 08-18-07, 07:45 PM

Good luck Big Dawg!!! Hope you safe safe bro....

The Houston, Texas evac was a MESS last time...

**ManImBored** · 08-19-07, 02:28 AM

Hopefully it stays in South Texas. I had to work during the last evacuation and it sucked, though the money was good.

**countybear** · 08-19-07, 11:21 AM

Latest track update shows a straight Westerly path now, which would put the storm plowing directly into Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.

Hope everything is well with you BigDawg. Keep us posted from Haiti.

**adroitcuffs** · 08-19-07, 05:01 PM

Prayers to everyone in the path!

**Pretty Boring Civi** · 08-20-07, 09:18 AM

Good luck everyone. What's BigDawg doing in Haiti? Does he have access to a strong shelter?

Swamp Mafia, I hope it doesn't head your way.

**BigDawg** · 08-20-07, 09:32 AM

Well folks we made it ok here in Port-au-Prince. The mountains blocked most of the bad stuff, plus it stayed south enough to not cause to many problems. I havent gotten an update on the coastal towns yet, but dont expect to much except some fooding reports. Thanks for all the thoughts and prayers they helped. Now its my turn to pray for the others that are now in its path. And its expected to become a Cat 5 before it makes landfall in Mexico!!! This one is no joke people please make arrangements if yout anywhere near its path!!

Again thanks for the thoughts

**SaraJ** · 08-20-07, 05:51 PM

We're high dessert here, 5,000+. Major problems are flooding and high winds. Some neighborhoods are in low areas (the poorer ones, natch) so suffer. The winds bring down trees that damage houses businesses and cars. Apart from that we're OK. Near the coast is where the big problems and loss of lives happen. Glad to hear BigDawg and family are OK.

**countybear** · 08-20-07, 09:30 PM

The 8:00 PM bulletin from National Hurricane Center reports Dean is continuing a West-Northwesterly motion at 20 m.p.h. The maximum sustained winds have now reached 155 m.p.h., with continued strengthening expected overnight. Landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is expected Tuesday, at full Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

If I am reading the climatology maps correctly, the high-pressure ridge holding Dean to a horizontal track splits with a low-pressure area North following Dean's track through the Yucatan. I'm willing to bet on a slight Northerly turn during or immediately following clearance with landfall on the Yucatan, bringing the storm to bear at minimum Cat 3-4 strength (weakened, then re-strengthening from landfall) into the Texas/Mexico border areas, perhaps as high as Corpus Christi, but more likely following just South of the the Rio Grande itself or through the Laredo/Kingsville gap, before charging North to Northeast to follow the low-pressure ridge. I'm no meteorologist, but that would be my bet.

I'd also bet on another storm following into South Florida from a disturbed area of the Atlantic Southeast of FL, following a similar, parrallel track North of the one Dean took.

We'll see. It's just guesswork on my part.