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  1. #1
    dadyswat's Avatar
    dadyswat is offline Officer First Class
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    It really could happen.

    MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
    Igor Panarin



    In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
    Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
    But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
    A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
    "There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
    Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
    In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
    Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
    Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
    Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
    The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
    In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
    "When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
    At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
    He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
    California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
    "It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
    Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
    Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
    The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
    For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
    The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

  2. #2
    mtaylor's Avatar
    mtaylor is offline "I dont feel the need to explain myself!"
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    Well atleast Texas will be alright. On a serious note his predictions are quite scary and for all of our sakes I hope that he is incorrect.

  3. #3
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    ... and how poignant that the U.S. media, (who is sold on sensationalism), seems so desperate to lend credit to a communist foreign political figure when he attempts to editorialize the future of the United States. If only they had covered the positive effects of the war on terror more closely, we'd be a much stronger nation.

    "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
    - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Tell me not, Sweet, I am unkind,
    That from the nunnery
    Of thy chaste breast and quiet mind
    To war and arms I fly.
    - Lovelace

    The opinions expressed by this poster are wholly his own, and should never be construed to even remotely be in representation of his employer, its agencies or assigns. In fact, they probably fail to be in alignment with the opinions of any rational human being.

  4. #4
    Captain America's Avatar
    Captain America is offline Reed and Malloy were my FTOs
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    Doesn't sound like anything changed in Texas. I guess nobody wanted Louisiana. Where is France? Never mind. France is probably too busy planning their next surrender to Germany.
    SI VIS PACEM PARA BELLUM

    "It's a great life. You risk your skin catching killers and the juries turn them loose so they can come back and shoot at you again. If your honest , your poor your whole life. And , In the end , you wind up dying all alone on some dirty street. For what? For nothing. For a tin star."
    -Ex-Sheriff Martin Howe to Will Kane in "High Noon"

    Far from being a handicap to command, compassion is the measure of it. For unless one values the lives of his soldiers and is tormented by their ordeals , he is unfit to command.
    -General Omar Bradley, United States Army

    Renniger-Richards-Griswold-Owens

  5. #5
    lewisipso's Avatar
    lewisipso is offline Injustice/Indifference/In God we trust
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    Lovely. Katie bar the door.
    Do not war for peace. If you must war, war for justice. For without justice there is no peace. -me

    We are who we choose to be.

    R.I.P. Arielle. 08/20/2010-09/16/2012


  6. #6
    CTR man's Avatar
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    As long as California doesn't revert to Mexico, I'll be happy. Otherwise I am moving to Utah. Unless Utah becomes part of Mexico, too.


    Choose The Right. When you're doing whats right, then you have nothing to worry about.

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    In memory of Sgt. Howard K. Stevenson 1965 - 2005. Ceres Police Dept.
    In memory of Robert N. Panos 1955 - 2008 Ceres Police Dept.









  7. #7
    Car 4's Avatar
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    Well, at least he was right about Obama....no miracles.....the rest is pure bullshit.



    Car 4
    I would like my country back. I used to believe that one man could never destroy this country. Not so sure anymore!

  8. #8
    pgg's Avatar
    pgg
    pgg is offline Damnit, I'm hungry again.
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    I like this new map that someone else drew in response to this

    'Political Correctness is a doctrine fostered by a
    delusional, illogical liberal minority, and rabidly
    promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which
    holds forth the proposition that it is entirely
    possible to pick up a turd by the clean end!'

    “A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity.” Sigmund Freud

  9. #9
    keith720's Avatar
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    I guess I'm not a part of the Doomsday crowd. I think this guy is a communist fanatic who is fostering an attitude of disaster out of frustration. He's found an audience in the Russian State media, and of course our media will buy into anything that is detrimental to the United States in order to pander to the rest of the world.
    For the morning will come. Brightly will it shine on the brave and true, kindly upon all who suffer for the cause, glorious upon the tombs of heroes. Thus will shine the dawn.

    Winston Churchill

  10. #10
    dadyswat's Avatar
    dadyswat is offline Officer First Class
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    Quote Originally Posted by pgg View Post
    I like this new map that someone else drew in response to this


    I sure hope Ohio moves to the blue zone.

  11. #11
    countybear's Avatar
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    It is important to remember the source of any statement, and the benefit recieved by those making such statements.

    This prediction has brought fame and popularity to Panarin, from a people (and a government) who has been reeling from its own near complete demise in recent history. "Mother" Russia cheers any difficulty that the United States suffers, because it is by our shining example that their system has comparitively shown itself to be deeply flawed.

    How ironic that the 'beacon of socialism' predicts destruction of another country ahead, due to the fact that the country it refers to has moved closer to socialism recently than ever before in its history...

    Of course, they predict our destruction as a nation. Certainly, it is their fondest hope.

    Why were they so misinformed in predicting their own?

    "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
    - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Tell me not, Sweet, I am unkind,
    That from the nunnery
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    To war and arms I fly.
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    The opinions expressed by this poster are wholly his own, and should never be construed to even remotely be in representation of his employer, its agencies or assigns. In fact, they probably fail to be in alignment with the opinions of any rational human being.

  12. #12
    MacLean's Avatar
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    Interesting to note his career was in PSYOPS.
    I'm your huckleberry...

    Quemadmoeum gladis nemeinum occidit, occidentus telum est!

    You can be the weapon, and the gun in your hand is a tool - or the gun is a weapon and you are the tool.


    I was looking for a saint who was a devil of a lover,
    but every girl I found was either one way or the other...



  13. #13
    Captain America's Avatar
    Captain America is offline Reed and Malloy were my FTOs
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    Quote Originally Posted by maclean View Post
    Interesting to note his career was in PSYOPS.
    Nice.
    SI VIS PACEM PARA BELLUM

    "It's a great life. You risk your skin catching killers and the juries turn them loose so they can come back and shoot at you again. If your honest , your poor your whole life. And , In the end , you wind up dying all alone on some dirty street. For what? For nothing. For a tin star."
    -Ex-Sheriff Martin Howe to Will Kane in "High Noon"

    Far from being a handicap to command, compassion is the measure of it. For unless one values the lives of his soldiers and is tormented by their ordeals , he is unfit to command.
    -General Omar Bradley, United States Army

    Renniger-Richards-Griswold-Owens

  14. #14
    countybear's Avatar
    countybear is offline BDRT - Baby Daddy Removal Team
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    Quote Originally Posted by maclean View Post
    Interesting to note his career was in PSYOPS.
    ... and our media wants to assist him, evidently.

    "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
    - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Tell me not, Sweet, I am unkind,
    That from the nunnery
    Of thy chaste breast and quiet mind
    To war and arms I fly.
    - Lovelace

    The opinions expressed by this poster are wholly his own, and should never be construed to even remotely be in representation of his employer, its agencies or assigns. In fact, they probably fail to be in alignment with the opinions of any rational human being.

  15. #15
    dadyswat's Avatar
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    The media has been assisting for the last 8 years.

  16. #16
    countybear's Avatar
    countybear is offline BDRT - Baby Daddy Removal Team
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    Quote Originally Posted by dadyswat View Post
    The media has been assisting for the last 8 years.
    True statement, DS. I'd venture to say longer.

    "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
    - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Tell me not, Sweet, I am unkind,
    That from the nunnery
    Of thy chaste breast and quiet mind
    To war and arms I fly.
    - Lovelace

    The opinions expressed by this poster are wholly his own, and should never be construed to even remotely be in representation of his employer, its agencies or assigns. In fact, they probably fail to be in alignment with the opinions of any rational human being.

  17. #17
    MacLean's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by countybear View Post
    ... and our media wants to assist him, evidently.
    The real success behind PSYOPS is precisely when you get the media to do it for you.

    He's got them talking about it, which is what he wants.

    He finds a tidbit that people can get behind, like Alaska going back to Russia - and Russians eat it up.

    He made a mistake about Texas though, perhaps the old guy hasn't actually been there.
    I'm your huckleberry...

    Quemadmoeum gladis nemeinum occidit, occidentus telum est!

    You can be the weapon, and the gun in your hand is a tool - or the gun is a weapon and you are the tool.


    I was looking for a saint who was a devil of a lover,
    but every girl I found was either one way or the other...



  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by maclean View Post
    He's got them talking about it, which is what he wants.
    And perhaps he doesn't realize that by making America aware of this theory, that it can make it more likely that we won't fall into that trap because now we are thinking of it. If any such collapse were to be possible, the most likely scenario would be where no one saw it coming, and no one realized there was even risk. Thanks for the heads up, Igor!
    CHIRP! CHIRP!

  19. #19
    MacLean's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndianaFuzz View Post
    And perhaps he doesn't realize that by making America aware of this theory, that it can make it more likely that we won't fall into that trap because now we are thinking of it. If any such collapse were to be possible, the most likely scenario would be where no one saw it coming, and no one realized there was even risk. Thanks for the heads up, Igor!

    I have had the opportunity to meet two Russian ex-patriates, both with military service in Russia, one in Israel as well.

    I am convinced now that they do not understand us - and even though they are both now American citizens who express their love of our country, they still don't truly grasp us.

    It's like this:

    You meet a cowboy, who says he can draw and hit four quarters in the air with his six gun. Nobody believes him, this is not possible! Then he does it, and everyone thinks it must be a trick.

    To the Russians, we are cowboys - freedom? profit? unending success? It must not be possible, it has to be a trick.

    Total domination of our military equipment in 100 hours? It must have been because our military equipment was being driven by Iraqis. It could not possibly be true that you are that good, that fast, or that undeterred by darkness. It must be a trick!
    I'm your huckleberry...

    Quemadmoeum gladis nemeinum occidit, occidentus telum est!

    You can be the weapon, and the gun in your hand is a tool - or the gun is a weapon and you are the tool.


    I was looking for a saint who was a devil of a lover,
    but every girl I found was either one way or the other...



  20. #20
    countybear's Avatar
    countybear is offline BDRT - Baby Daddy Removal Team
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndianaFuzz View Post
    And perhaps he doesn't realize that by making America aware of this theory, that it can make it more likely that we won't fall into that trap because now we are thinking of it. If any such collapse were to be possible, the most likely scenario would be where no one saw it coming, and no one realized there was even risk. Thanks for the heads up, Igor!
    I sincerely doubt that his commentary is for the benefit of anyone but himself and his own circle of influence. In the eyes of the Russian people, he's a hero for suggesting that the U.S. will fall.

    "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."
    - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Tell me not, Sweet, I am unkind,
    That from the nunnery
    Of thy chaste breast and quiet mind
    To war and arms I fly.
    - Lovelace

    The opinions expressed by this poster are wholly his own, and should never be construed to even remotely be in representation of his employer, its agencies or assigns. In fact, they probably fail to be in alignment with the opinions of any rational human being.

 

 
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