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08-04-09, 06:06 PM #1
Why we won't see a Republican president for a long, long time
37 - That's the number of states that are either solidly or leaning Democratic in a series of Gallup tracking polls conducted over the first six months of 2009. Only eight states are solidly or leaning Republicans in that same data.
The numbers, which are based on party identification of adults in national tracking polls, paint a stark portrait of the challenge facing Republicans not just in the 2010 midterm election but also in the 2012 presidential race.
There are currently 29 states in which Democrats enjoy a 10-percentage point (or more) edge on party identification. Compare that to just four states where the Republican edge is ten points or higher (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska) and one (Alabama) that leans toward the GOP.
Add up the 29 states that are in the solidly Democratic category, according to Gallup, and you get 350 electoral votes; add up the four states in the solidly Republican category and you get 15 electoral votes.
To be sure, these numbers should not be read as a direct indicator of what the 2012 election landscape will look like as voters often identify with one party while voting for another. For example, four of the states that are identified as solidly Democratic (West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri) went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.
Still, the trend lines apparent in the Gallup data have to be disturbing for Republicans.
As compared to Gallup's yearly national data in 2008, nine states changed classification in the first half of 2009. Six of those states (Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Georgia, South Dakota and Nebraska) moved toward Democrats; just three (Colorado, Nevada and Alabama) moved toward Republicans.
Lots can change in a year (or three) in politics. But, Democrats have to feel good about where they stand in the states at the moment.
08-04-09, 10:56 PM #2
I seriously doubt that Utah will ever go Democratic. Hell will have to freeze over first. And I don't mean Hell, Michigan. Where we went wrong with Sen Harry Reid from Nevada, I will never know. Reid is LDS. We (LDS) seldom vote for or state our party as democratic. Latest figures state that Utah is about 65% LDS.
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In memory of Sgt. Howard K. Stevenson 1965 - 2005. Ceres Police Dept.
In memory of Robert N. Panos 1955 - 2008 Ceres Police Dept.
08-05-09, 10:09 AM #3
Great.Do not war for peace. If you must war, war for justice. For without justice there is no peace. -me
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08-05-09, 10:58 AM #4
I strongly suspect we are going to be in the shitter a year from now and the GOP will retake at least the House of Reps.That which does not kill me, better start fucking running.
If I lived every day like it was my last, the body count would be staggering.
I intend to go in harm's way. -John Paul Jones
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08-05-09, 09:52 PM #5
The poll was conducted over the first six months. I bet it would change if redone in the last 6 months of 09. And the longer we get away from the honeymoon period, the more people seem to be looking at what's really going on, not just the media hype.
08-06-09, 03:03 AM #6
I subscribe to the belief that the Democrats lost control of Congress last time due to the backlash from passing the Assault Weapons Ban. If that issue was the actual reason and if the health control bill is passed, I think the backlash is going to be even larger. We may not see a Republican President get elected, but I can see a Republican Congress in the near future. There are a lot of Democrats that aren't too happy about the current activity and will use their votes to show their displeasure."When a crime is committed, liberals blame society. Conservatives blame the criminal." -Debra Saunders
Old Scottish Motto- "nemo me impune laccessit". It still holds true today.
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