Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 406 AMERICAN POLICE BEAT: DECEMBER 2016 Crime is out of control, or not – who knows? The fear of crime and the value of that fear for the political class makes actual numbers an afterthought – especially during presidential election season A s usual, there’s lots of talk about the massive wave of violent crime sweeping the nation. The only problem is there’s very little solid evidence to back those claims up. The FBI recently pub- lished its annual figures based on crimes reported to the Bureau of Justice Statis- tics. All told crime was up 3.9 percent last year. Four percent isn’t really a spike and when you con- sider historical norms it’s in- creasingly difficult to make the case that crime is out of control. The good news for those arguing that crime is way up is that the FBI’s numbers don’t actually tell the whole story. In fact they only tell a fraction of the story. Less than half of the Amer- icans victimized by violent crime even called the cops. That’s been true for de- cades, according to a recent article from the Business Insider. In addition, the FBI sim- ply doesn’t count a lot of crimes based on who the victim is. The other way we know how much crime there is comes from the latest edition of the National Criminal Victimization Survey, or NCVS. That survey says the rate of violent crime victimiza- tion in 2015 was statistically the same as the year before. Oddly at the same time the number of people who were victims of violent crime fell by 10 percent, according to the survey. The Bureau’s numbers are based on voluntary report- ing from local law enforce- ment agencies. Many agencies do not report their crime stats for a variety of reasons. The victimization survey also has serious problems in terms of painting an accurate picture. The survey only involves victims ages 12 and older, and it may under-represent the homeless or people who move frequently. Because it relies on in- terviews with the victims themselves, it also doesn’t cover murders. So what we’re left with are two different sets of data. Janet Lauritsen, a profes- sor of criminology at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, has looked at how the victimization survey and the FBI numbers compare. “You have to look at both series of data if you’re going to talk about national crime trends,” Lauritsen told Busi- ness Insider reporters. “You try to use both data sources where you can to see where there might be prob- lems in the police data. The limit of the NCVS is you can’t get the subnational es- timates easily. It’s designed for national level estimates. “This doesn’t mean that for a specific jurisdiction that you can say there aren’t cities with bad recording practices and lower victim reporting. These are things we just don’t know the an- swers to.” For instance the FBI does not track serious domestic violence and intimate part- ner violence. There’s a lot of talk about how “big data” will revo- lutionize and probably au- tomate a lot of the work that police officers do now. But perhaps we might want to use “big data” to find out what’s happening with crime rates before we use it to catch crooks. Standing guard and standing strong Texas State Trooper Bertha Farias is ready to serve and protect the visitors to the Texas State Capitol, in Austin. The historic building has hundreds of thousands of visitors a year. Photo courtesy: David Malhalab, MNS Photo/ M News Service, 313 580 2393. To learn more, visit your local Smith & Warren dealer or visit www.SmithWarren.com Badges Insignia Medals Awards Collar Insignia Nameplates Challenge Coins Pins Accessories Contact@SmithWarren.com Ph: 914.948.4619 Fax: 914.948.1627 Design your badge online /smithandwarren @SmithnWarren Trust Smith & Warren for a badge that reflects your department’s identity It’s not JUST a BADGE