Anyone who lived through 2020 remembers it as a time of extensive social activism, much of which led to widespread legal and political change. APB has previously reported on cities compelled to significantly reverse their “defund” efforts, such as Seattle, where the city council approved a police contract earlier this year offering substantial raises to attract new recruits after losing over 300 trained officers since 2020. These local trends may have foreshadowed broader changes reflected in the outcomes of the November 5 general elections.

During the activism surge of 2020, L.A. County District Attorney George Gascón swept into office. Amid cheers from supporters and cries of protest from critics, he set about implementing an agenda that many considered radical. He prohibited prosecutors from seeking the death penalty, ended cash bail for misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies, and stopped the prosecution of juveniles as adults. 

“Liberal voters are shifting rightward when it comes to their views on criminal justice.”

Now, four years later, voters ousted him, electing Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor who campaigned on addressing voter concerns about crime and homelessness. “Safety is a crossover issue,” Hochman told reporters at his election night watch party, per Politico. “Whether you’re on the left or the right, whether you’re Black, white, Latino, Asian, people want to be safe again in this community. They want the police to actually do a very good job at their job.”

Several California tough-on-crime ballot measures prevailed as well. Proposition 36, which increased penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, sailed to victory. Similarly, in Colorado, a measure increasing jail time under certain circumstances also passed. Even Vox, a traditionally liberal news site, acknowledged that “… liberal voters are shifting rightward when it comes to their views on criminal justice.”

While many law enforcement officers (and right-leaning voters) may view these developments as victories, advocates for progressive policies see them as setbacks to “progress” or “criminal justice reform.” Insha Rahman, the director of criminal justice reform advocacy group Vera Action, told Vox that the election results “… [go] to show that there is a real disparity between what is right as a matter of policy and then where the temperature is as a matter
of politics.”

A review of similar news articles shows a recurring narrative: activists expressing frustration while asserting that crime rates are actually falling, often lamenting that voters can’t seem to understand they really have nothing to worry about. Advocates for progressive criminal justice policies frequently blame the media for sensationalizing crime, creating a perception among voters that the proverbial sky is falling. According to Vox, one reason why voters aren’t “moved by falling crime rates” is that a brief surge in crime during 2020 has left Americans skeptical, leading them to believe the progressive policies of that year were a mistake.

The article is not alone in this admonition. College textbooks frequently jump through an increasingly elaborate maze of statistical hoops to declare that crime rates go down, even when punitive measures are reduced.

Many voters, however, apparently chose to believe their own eyes. Interestingly enough, the voters may be right. Remarking on the sweep at the ballot box, the L.A. Times acknowledged that California crime rates have, indeed, risen. Data from the California Department of Justice indicates that violent crime in that state rose by 15% from 2020 to 2023.